A new model, which explores the polar field build-up rate and the amplitude of the following cycle, predicts a slightly stronger Cycle 25 than previously thought.
The Sun’s toroidal field is derived using 45 years of Wilcox Solar Observatory data, 16 years of Michelson Doppler Imager data, and 11 years of Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager data. The duration of each cycle in both hemispheres is also estimated.
Using the solar axial magnetic dipole moment obtained prior to the solar minimum, the author predicts that the maximum sunspot number of Solar Cycle 25 is about 128.
Through simulations using Babcock-Leighton flux transport model, it is found that the abrupt changes on the polar field near solar minimum could be the cause of the sunspot number double peaks in the next solar cycle.
To assess the impact of active regions to the axial dipole moment, the authors isolate the contribution of individual regions for Cycles 21, 22, and 23 using a surface flux transport model, and find that although the top ~10% of contributors tend to define sudden large variations in the dipole moment, the cumulative contribution of many weaker regions cannot be ignored.
Employing an updated Babcock–Leighton dynamo model, this study finds that the model with scattered tilt angles, which are around the Joy’s Law but with a standard deviation of 15°, is able to reproduce the observed variations of solar cycles.
It is demonstrated that when taking into account of the radial inhomogeneity of the Coriolis number, the solar-like differential rotation and the double-cell meridional circulation can both be reproduced by the mean-field model.
Various observable, such as polar field, meridional flow, and sunspot number, are examined to identify information flow, causality, and time delay between them during solar cycles. It is expected that this analysis can provide observational constraints on solar cycle models and theories.
The Sun’s surface poloidal and toroidal magnetic field were constructed for the last 4 solar cycles using observations from multiple instruments, and were then reproduced using the updated Babcock-Leighton model.
Super-synoptic map is constructed using SDO/HMI’s synoptic magnetic maps of each Carrington rotation, covering the period of May 2010 to December 2017. Polarity reversals can be clearly seen in the map.