A new model, which explores the polar field build-up rate and the amplitude of the following cycle, predicts a slightly stronger Cycle 25 than previously thought.
The Sun’s toroidal field is derived using 45 years of Wilcox Solar Observatory data, 16 years of Michelson Doppler Imager data, and 11 years of Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager data. The duration of each cycle in both hemispheres is also estimated.
Magnetic-field dependence of active regions’ tilt angles are analyzed using the MDI and HMI observations for two solar cycles. The variation of the tilt angles with the maximum magnetic-field strength of the ARs indicates a nonlinear tilt quenching in the Babcock–Leighton process.
The Sun’s poloidal and toroidal magnetic field components derived from synoptic magnetograms are assimilated into a mean-field dynamo model, and activity level for Cycle 25 is predicted based on this approach.
Subsurface meridional flows from ring-diagram analysis showed a clear hemispheric asymmetry in last 18 years. Interestingly, this flow asymmetry leads the magnetic flux and sunspot number asymmetry by 3.1 – 3.6 years.
Features of the Shannon entropy transfer between solar magnetic modes are described and analyzed. It is confirmed that solar magnetic modes can be separated into three groups: entropy sources, entropy transmitters, and entropy targets.
The Sun’s oblateness shows a variation with solar cycles, in phase with the solar activity level in Cycle 23 but in anti-phase with the activity level in Cycle 24. Such a trend of in-phase during odd cycles and anti-phase during even cycles is confirmed after examining past observations.
Physical parameters, including sunspots tilt angles, total magnetic flux, polarity pole separations, and magnetic areas, are measured for most sunspot groups in solar cycles 23 and 24. Differences between Hale and anti-Hale sunspots in separate hemispheres and cycles are studied statistically.
Through simulations using Babcock-Leighton flux transport model, it is found that the abrupt changes on the polar field near solar minimum could be the cause of the sunspot number double peaks in the next solar cycle.
To assess the impact of active regions to the axial dipole moment, the authors isolate the contribution of individual regions for Cycles 21, 22, and 23 using a surface flux transport model, and find that although the top ~10% of contributors tend to define sudden large variations in the dipole moment, the cumulative contribution of many weaker regions cannot be ignored.