A set of parameters that characterize the complexity and energy potential of solar active-regions is fed through several Machine Learning and conventional statistics algorithms to forecast solar flares.
A deep-learning method, Convolutional Neural Network, is developed to use the HMI’s line-of-sight magnetic field to forecast solar flares.
Where does a sunspot’s penumbra start to form, on the same side or the opposite side of its opposite-polarity sunspot? When does Evershed flow start to appear, before or after the penumbral formation? These questions are answered through analyzing selected samples observed by the HMI.
The majority of flare forecasting methods rely on observations of magnetic field on the Sun’s surface, but which observable, Br or Blos, is a better predictor? Through comparing a few magnetic properties derived from both observables, this nugget gives some suggestion.
AR12192, the largest active region in Solar Cycle 24, produced 6 X-class flares, but none of them were associated with a CME. However, a much weaker flare, of M4.0-class, was associated with a CME. Magnetic field and morphological changes are analyzed during these flares to understand why this is the case.
44 strong flares are analyzed, and a few factors are identified to determine whether a flare will be eruptive or confined.
The early phase of a flux emergence was observed by IRIS, and spectra of the accompanying UV bursts are analyzed. Many bursts appear to be associated with the magnetic flux cancellation, and almost all of them are located in regions with large squashing factors.
Vector magnetic fields, obtained separately from the HMI and from the Stokes parameters of Hinode, are compared for a sunspot umbra, penumbra, and plages in a selected active region.
Magnetic field changes associated with solar flares, observed by the SDO/HMI, are surveyed, and permanent changes of magnetic field are found in the majority of flare events. Properties of the magnetic field changes are further investigated.
The Sun’s surface poloidal and toroidal magnetic field were constructed for the last 4 solar cycles using observations from multiple instruments, and were then reproduced using the updated Babcock-Leighton model.